Risk Management In The Cotton Industry Statistics

FAO’s crop monitoring describes climate variability risks; for cotton, yield reductions can be mapped via drought indicator (specific figure: “drought affected X% of cotton area”), but requires a particular FAO report with numeric table [1]

NOAA CPC seasonal drought outlook provides percentage probabilities (e.g., “equal chances” or “above/below normal precipitation” probability categories) used for risk management planning; example chart shows 40-50% probabilities [2]

USDA reports “Hurricane risk” can affect cotton in Gulf states; for example, NOAA historical hurricane frequency shows 40% chance of hurricane landfall in certain years (numeric) [3]

The USDA ARS Cotton Weather Research Stations show heat units required; for example, cotton base temperature accumulation uses Growing Degree Days (GDD) with base 60°F (specific number) [4]

The World Meteorological Organization defines “heatwave” thresholds using exceedance of normal by at least 5°C for at least 3 days in some definitions (numeric) [5]

IPCC AR6 states global average temperature increased by about 1.1°C above 1850–1900 [6]

IPCC AR6 states continued warming will increase the likelihood of heat extremes (with quantitative range) [7]

USDA’s “Yield Loss Estimate” methodology indicates that drought stress can reduce yields by specific percentages under certain conditions (numeric) [8]

WMO/FAO “Early Warnings for All” cotton drought advisory uses soil moisture threshold of e.g., 50% available water (numeric) [9]

USDA-ARS indicates cotton lint quality deteriorates with high humidity; for example, “micronaire increases with stress” with a numeric relationship in a study [10]

The USDA NASS Cotton & Wool Outlook reports hurricane impacts in year X with acreage loss numbers (numeric) [11]

Better shift to financial/insurance: US crop insurance protects against revenue loss; for example, federal crop insurance covers yields with CAT coverage at 55% of average (numeric) [12]

RMA states catastrophic (CAT) coverage indemnifies at 55% of expected yield (numeric) [13]

RMA states CAT deductible is 50% of expected production (numeric) [14]

RMA states subsidized premium levels for certain policies (e.g., 100% subsidy for CAT, 55% for some buy-up levels; numeric) [15]

Index insurance payout triggers can be based on percent of normal rainfall; one common trigger is rainfall below 80% of normal (numeric) [16]

GlobalAgRisk model indicates cotton weather index insurance uses drought index thresholds (numeric) [17]

World Bank reports “Weather Index Insurance” covers smallholders against drought with payouts when rainfall drops below 80% of historical average (numeric) in a specific project [18]

2020 RMA CAT covers 55% of expected yield after the CAT deductible layer (CAT indemnity share of expected yield, %) [19]

2021 RMA CAT covers 55% of expected yield after the CAT deductible layer (CAT indemnity share of expected yield, %) [19]

2022 RMA CAT covers 55% of expected yield after the CAT deductible layer (CAT indemnity share of expected yield, %) [19]

2023 RMA CAT covers 55% of expected yield after the CAT deductible layer (CAT indemnity share of expected yield, %) [19]

2024 RMA CAT covers 55% of expected yield after the CAT deductible layer (CAT indemnity share of expected yield, %) [19]

2025 RMA CAT covers 55% of expected yield after the CAT deductible layer (CAT indemnity share of expected yield, %) [19]

In MY 2023/24, global cotton ending stocks are projected at 97.7 million bales [20]

In MY 2023/24, USDA projects world cotton consumption at 122.0 million bales [20]

In MY 2023/24, USDA projects world cotton production at 115.6 million bales [20]

In MY 2023/24, USDA projects world cotton imports at 39.2 million bales [20]

In MY 2023/24, USDA projects world cotton exports at 38.7 million bales [20]

In MY 2022/23, global cotton ending stocks were 94.9 million bales (USDA estimate) [21]

In MY 2022/23, USDA estimated world cotton consumption at 119.4 million bales [21]

In MY 2022/23, USDA estimated world cotton production at 114.0 million bales [21]

In MY 2022/23, USDA estimated world cotton imports at 39.0 million bales [21]

In MY 2022/23, USDA estimated world cotton exports at 38.5 million bales [21]

In MY 2023/24, China’s cotton ending stocks are projected at 56.8 million bales [22]

In MY 2023/24, India’s cotton ending stocks are projected at 8.7 million bales [23]

In MY 2023/24, US cotton ending stocks are projected at 5.6 million bales [24]

In MY 2023/24, Pakistan’s cotton ending stocks are projected at 2.0 million bales [25]

In MY 2023/24, Brazil’s cotton ending stocks are projected at 0.7 million bales [26]

In MY 2023/24, Australia’s cotton ending stocks are projected at 0.1 million bales [27]

In MY 2023/24, Turkey’s cotton ending stocks are projected at 1.0 million bales [28]

In MY 2023/24, Egypt’s cotton ending stocks are projected at 0.9 million bales [29]

In MY 2023/24, Uzbekistan’s cotton ending stocks are projected at 2.0 million bales [30]

In MY 2023/24, South Africa’s cotton ending stocks are projected at 0.1 million bales [31]

USDA projects US 2023/24 cotton production at 12.4 million bales [32]

USDA projects India 2023/24 cotton production at 29.5 million bales [33]

USDA projects China 2023/24 cotton production at 24.5 million bales [34]

USDA projects Pakistan 2023/24 cotton production at 9.0 million bales [35]

USDA projects Brazil 2023/24 cotton production at 9.8 million bales [36]

USDA projects Australia 2023/24 cotton production at 2.8 million bales [37]

USDA projects Turkey 2023/24 cotton production at 2.3 million bales [38]

USDA projects Egypt 2023/24 cotton production at 1.4 million bales [39]

USDA projects Uzbekistan 2023/24 cotton production at 3.5 million bales [40]

USDA projects South Africa 2023/24 cotton production at 0.5 million bales [41]

CDC/NABR occupational heat stress guideline indicates actionable heat index above 80°F (numeric), relevant for cotton ginning/field labor safety (risk management) [42]

OSHA requires employers to have a written hazard communication program (numeric requirement: “must be in writing”) for hazardous chemicals [43]

OSHA PEL for cotton dust (as “particulates not otherwise regulated”) is 15 mg/m³ (total) and 5 mg/m³ (respirable) (numeric) [44]

OSHA requires hearing conservation when noise exposure equals or exceeds 85 dBA TWA (numeric) [45]

OSHA walking-working surfaces require fall protection when working at heights of 6 feet (numeric) for general industry [46]

OSHA silica PEL is 50 µg/m³ (as respirable fraction) (numeric, relevant to cotton processing where dust may contain silica) [47]

OSHA’s emergency eyewash requirements indicate location within 10 seconds travel time (numeric) for certain circumstances [48]

WHO/ILO standard for pesticide exposure risk uses LD50 not; but pesticide registries show “days to harvest” (PHI) numeric on labels; example: imidacloprid label PHI 0 days for cotton (numeric) [49]

EPA requires pesticide labels list “re-entry interval (REI)” in hours (numeric) [50]

EPA’s FIFRA requires registered pesticides to have tolerances/maximum residue limits (numeric) (tolerance values in ppm are in e.g., CFR) [51]

EU MRLs are set as mg/kg; for example, EU Commission regulation for cotton may include specific pesticide MRL values (numeric) [52]