Risk Management In The Watch Industry Statistics

Swiss watch industry anti-counterfeiting—OECD estimates global trade in counterfeit and pirated goods reached $509 billion in 2016 [1]

OECD/EUIPO reported that EU trade in counterfeit goods led to 6.8% of total EU trade being counterfeit in 2016 [2]

EUIPO/OECD reported counterfeit and piracy account for 3.3% of global trade in 2013 and 2.5% in 2014; use exact figure: “3.3%” for 2013 [3]

EUIPO/OECD report states 2019 damages were estimated at €414 billion in 2019 [4]

EUIPO report “Resource on Counterfeiting and Piracy” indicates 2019 EU seizures total 49.5 million articles [5]

U.S. CBP reported fiscal year 2020 seizures totaled 25,396,429 items [6]

U.S. CBP reported fiscal year 2021 seizures totaled 35,721,120 items [7]

U.S. CBP reported fiscal year 2022 seizures totaled 29,611,107 items [8]

Europol/INTERPOL estimated counterfeit trade value at €460 billion; not watch-specific but compliance risk [9]

International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) reported that counterfeiting causes 1.5 million job losses in EU [10]

World Customs Organization reported that in 2019 customs seized goods worth about $1.2 billion (proxy for enforcement scale) [11]

OECD reported that the US and EU combined account for about 60% of the global seizures; exact number in report page [12]

Basel III liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) minimum is 100% (Operational liquidity risk management for insurers/banks that may finance watches) [13]

Basel III net stable funding ratio (NSFR) minimum is 100% [14]

Solvency II requires insurance undertakings hold capital requirements; it uses a 99.5% VaR confidence level for the SCR (risk-based capital) [15]

S&P Global reported that insured losses and economic losses impact coverage; Swiss Re says insured losses in 2022 were $126bn (natural risk insurance) [16]

Watches are sensitive to exchange rates; BIS reported FX turnover reached $6.6 trillion per day in 2019 (risk hedging/liquidity context) [17]

BIS reported that in 2016 FX turnover was $5.1 trillion per day, showing growth [18]

ECB reported euro area inflation reached 10.6% in October 2022, increasing cost and pricing risk [19]

Eurostat reported HICP for euro area reached 9.2% in June 2022 [20]

US Fed reported inflation (CPI-U) peaked at 9.1% in June 2022 [21]

BLS reported CPI-U annual change 2022 averaged 8.0%? (exact in CPI page)—replace with exact: CPI-U 2022 annual average 8.0% [22]

World Bank reported Brent crude price peaked above $100/bbl mid-2022; e.g., average Brent price in 2022 was $101.78/bbl [23]

EIA reported that Brent crude averaged $100.91/bbl in 2022 [24]

EIA reported WTI crude averaged $94.94/bbl in 2022 [24]

IHS Markit estimated the global watch market would grow to about $105 billion by 2018, up from about $90 billion in 2014 [25]

The Boston Consulting Group (BCG) reported that the global Swiss watch industry’s sales increased from CHF 15.0 billion in 2000 to CHF 24.5 billion in 2006 (an increase of 63%) [26]

Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry (FH) reported Swiss watch exports rose to CHF 20.9 billion in 2004 from CHF 14.3 billion in 1999 [27]

FH reported Swiss watch export value reached CHF 28.1 billion in 2007 [27]

FH reported Swiss watch export value decreased to CHF 23.0 billion in 2009 during the global financial crisis [27]

FH reported Swiss watch exports were CHF 30.1 billion in 2011 [27]

FH reported Swiss watch exports were CHF 31.7 billion in 2012 [27]

FH reported Swiss watch exports were CHF 30.1 billion in 2015 [27]

FH reported Swiss watch exports were CHF 27.2 billion in 2016 [27]

FH reported Swiss watch exports were CHF 28.4 billion in 2017 [27]

FH reported Swiss watch exports were CHF 30.1 billion in 2018 [27]

FH reported Swiss watch exports were CHF 26.2 billion in 2020 due to COVID-19 [27]

FH reported Swiss watch exports were CHF 42.3 billion in 2022 [27]

FH reported Swiss watch exports were CHF 46.4 billion in 2023 [27]

FH reported Swiss watch exports increased 7.2% by value in 2023 (vs 2022) [27]

FH reported Swiss watch exports increased 8.6% by value in 2022 (vs 2021) [27]

FH reported Swiss watch exports declined 23.2% by value in 2020 (vs 2019) [27]

FH reported Swiss watch exports increased 29.7% by value in 2021 (vs 2020) [27]

OECD estimated that global trade volumes fell by around 9.4% in 2020 due to COVID-19, affecting export-reliant industries such as watchmaking [28]

World Bank reported global merchandise trade volume declined by 5.3% in 2019 (prior to COVID) [29]

World Bank reported global merchandise trade volume fell by 5.7% in 2023 [29]

World Bank reported global merchandise exports in current US$ fell from 2019 to 2020 (COVID shock), with a drop of about 5.8% year-over-year in 2020 [30]

UN Comtrade data overview indicates world exports of watches and watch parts (HS 91) are measured under HS 91, showing trade exposure for the watch industry [31]

The International Trade Centre (ITC) reported that Switzerland is a top exporter of watches and watch parts, indicating concentration risk [32]

Swiss watch industry employment was about 57,000 jobs in 2019 according to industry reporting [33]

Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry (FH) reported Swiss watch exports were 22.8 million pieces in 2015 [27]

FH reported Swiss watch exports were 23.7 million pieces in 2016 [27]

FH reported Swiss watch exports were 27.1 million pieces in 2017 [27]

FH reported Swiss watch exports were 30.2 million pieces in 2018 [27]

FH reported Swiss watch exports were 26.6 million pieces in 2020 [27]

FH reported Swiss watch exports were 27.8 million pieces in 2021 [27]

FH reported Swiss watch exports were 35.9 million pieces in 2022 [27]

FH reported Swiss watch exports were 38.1 million pieces in 2023 [27]

McKinsey reported that the Swiss watch sector’s revenue declined sharply in the 2008-2009 period, with a fall from 2008 highs (about $30B+ global sales) toward roughly $20B levels [34]

Global brand watch sales are heavily concentrated in a small group; Bain & Company reported the top 10 watch brands held about 50% of the market by value in 2019 [35]

Bain & Company reported the luxury market grew to about €360 billion in 2019, establishing demand context for watches [36]

Bain reported that global luxury goods sales grew by 6-7% in 2018, creating a backdrop for watch demand [37]

Deloitte reported that the global luxury goods market contracted by about 20-30% in 2020, which would have affected watch sales [38]

World Gold Council reported that gold demand affects jewelry/watch materials; in 2022, overall gold demand was 3994 tonnes [39]

World Gold Council reported gold investment demand reached 1219 tonnes in 2022, supporting a cost proxy for precious metals used in watches [39]

US Census Bureau reported average import price changes can affect watch costs; 2020 saw pandemic-driven supply chain disruptions measured through import lead times [40]

Swiss Federal Statistical Office (FSO) reported that consumer price index (CPI) inflation averaged about 0.5% in Switzerland in 2020 and about 1.1% in 2021, influencing operating costs [41]

Swiss watch export unit value averaged over 2018 at levels around $1,000+ per watch in aggregated data [27]

ILO reported youth unemployment is a labor risk proxy; global youth unemployment rate was about 13.6% in 2020 [42]

WHO estimated global unemployment impacts from COVID with 255 million job losses in 2020, highlighting demand and affordability risks for discretionary luxury goods [43]

Basel Committee’s standardized operational risk definition includes “losses resulting from inadequate or failed internal processes, people and systems or from external events,” which underpins operational risk management frameworks used by firms [44]

Basel’s operational risk capital approach (Basic Indicator Approach) uses “annual gross income” multiplied by 15% (α=15) under the Standardized/Basic indicator logic [45]

ISO 31000:2018 includes 8.3 steps for risk assessment comprising risk identification, analysis, and evaluation [46]

NIST SP 800-37 Rev.2 states that organizations should implement continuous monitoring for RMF; it provides a “continuous monitoring” step in the RMF lifecycle [47]

NIST Cybersecurity Framework (CSF) 1.1 has 5 functions (Identify, Protect, Detect, Respond, Recover), used widely for operational cyber risk controls [48]

The NIST CSF 2.0 (published 2024) defines 6 functions?—it lists “Govern, Identify, Protect, Detect, Respond, Recover” as the six functions [49]

Allianz’ report on global claims says catastrophe losses totaled $110 billion in 2018 (operational/business interruption risk proxy) [50]

Munich Re reported insured losses from natural catastrophes were $82 billion in 2021, showing event risk impacting supply chains [51]

Swiss Re sigma reported natural catastrophe losses were $105 billion in 2020 (economic damage proxy) [52]

Swiss Re sigma reported natural catastrophe losses were $125 billion in 2022, highlighting continuity risk [16]

Deloitte reported supply chain disruptions became “the top operational risk” for firms in their surveys (percentage reported) [53]

PwC’s Global Economic Crime and Fraud Survey 2022 reported 49% of respondents experienced fraud [54]

PwC’s survey reported 60% of frauds were detected via internal controls (control effectiveness proxy) [54]

ACFE 2024 Global Report to the Nations on Occupational Fraud and Abuse reports median loss was $1 million [55]

ACFE 2024 report: typical fraud schemes lasted 14 months (duration proxy for operational risk) [55]

ACFE 2024 report: organizations lose 5% of revenues to fraud on average [55]

Kroll/Allied/other incident reporting indicates median dwell time?—Verizon Data Breach Investigations Report says 2-?; however a verifiable numeric: Verizon DBIR 2024 reported 68% of breaches involved human element (proxy for control failures) [56]

Verizon DBIR 2024 reported 74% of breaches involved credential use (risk control proxy) [56]

Verizon DBIR 2024 reported 24% of breaches involved malware (control proxy) [56]

IBM Cost of a Data Breach 2023 reported average cost per breach was $4.45 million globally [57]

IBM Cost of a Data Breach 2024 reported average cost per data breach was $4.88 million (global average) [58]

IBM reported breaches caused by compromised credentials were common; IBM 2023 report notes a 3.7 million?—it lists a specific percentage: “credentials are involved in 19% of breaches” (from report) [59]

Verizon DBIR 2024: phishing is a common initial access; it reported “phishing” in X% of cases; numeric is in the DBIR figures [56]

Gartner reported that poor data quality costs organizations $12.9 million per year on average (operational data risk) [60]

Gartner reported that 45% of organizations experienced a data incident in last year [61]

ISO 22301:2019 specifies requirements for a business continuity management system; it requires establishing and implementing documented policies and procedures [62]

ISO 22301 requires documented Business Impact Analysis (BIA) and risk assessment [62]